THE PATH TO THE NIGERIAN PRESIDENCY (PART 1)

The Path to the Nigerian Presidency (Part 1)

By Oyugbo Osagie Jonah 

Nigeria is a nation of unparalleled potential, defined by its vibrant diversity of people, cultures, and beliefs. This diversity is our greatest strength but also our most complex challenge. Our differences in ethnicity, religion, and region profoundly shape our national identity and political landscape.

To aspire to the Nigerian presidency is to engage with a reality far beyond eloquent speeches, personal capability, or a clean reputation. It is to enter the highest-stakes game of political calculus, where tribal allegiances, religious faith, and regional interests are the primary currencies of power.

The unequivocal truth is that the presidency is not won solely by popular appeal; it is negotiated. Victory is secured through strategic power brokering that meticulously balances regional interests. A successful candidate must build a national coalition that transcends their ethnic base.

President Muhammadu Buhari credibility and northern base were never in doubt. However, he only ascended to the presidency after a strategic negotiation with the South-West, culminating in a power-sharing agreement that delivered their bloc votes. His personal brand was necessary, but it was insufficient without a cross-regional alliance.

President Bola Tinubu victory was not a spontaneous event but the result of years of meticulous planning and negotiation. He fortified his South-West base and secured critical alliances with powerful factions in the North and the South-South. This long-term strategizing exemplifies the foresight required deals that made election cycles in advance.

While some aspirants are only now beginning to craft their public message for 2027, the backroom negotiations for 2031 are already in motion. The emerging narrative revolves around a zoning agreement to the Middle Belt for 2031, which is being used as a bargaining chip to secure support for any candidate in 2027.

Mr. Peter Obi commands an enviable and passionate base in the South-East and significant support among the youth nationwide. However, passion does not automatically translate into electoral college majorities. His critical deficit is in the Northern numerical strongholds.

To be a viable winner in 2027, he must execute a masterstroke of political negotiation. His most potent card is to formally and credibly endorse a power shift to the Middle Belt in 2031. By championing a competent Middle Belt candidate as his potential successor, he can negotiate for the bloc votes of that region and juicy bargain with critical northern elements dissatisfied with the status quo. This creates a winning South-East/Middle Belt/Progressive-North coalition.

No one is handed the presidency because they have good plans. The question every kingmaker and voter in a pivotal region asks is If we support your ambition, what is in it for our region and our people.

This is the card former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar has often failed to play effectively, relying instead on personal stature and wealth. Wealth is a tool, but it cannot buy the complex national consensus required.

For Peter Obi, the window to play the ultimate strategic card is now. Offering a clear, credible, and negotiated path to the presidency for the Middle Belt in 2031 is not just a tactic; it is the most calculative strategy to build the national coalition necessary to win in 2027.

Until the moment when will shall dance in white Greater Grace.

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