THE PATH TO THE NIGERIAN PRESIDENCY (PART 2)

The Path to the Nigerian Presidency (Part 2) 

By Oyugbo Osagie Jonah 

In the calculus of Nigerian politics, raw voter numbers are the fundamental units of power. Here, the Northern region holds a significant and historically demonstrated demographic advantage. This is not a matter of opinion but of electoral data. For any Southern aspirant, ignoring this reality is a strategic non-starter.

The disparity is amplified by a critical difference in voter mobilization. Northern voters consistently demonstrate high turnout, with a culture of collective participation across age and gender lines. In contrast, voter apathy, fear of political violence, and a tendency for middle-class voters to disengage or even relocate families during elections suppress turnout in the South region. This turnout deficit critically undermines the South's numerical potential.

Furthermore, a significant portion of the Southern electorate particularly the passionate, digitally-active youth is geographically disenfranchised, residing overseas. While their social media advocacy is vocal, it does not translate into votes. This represents a deficit of millions of potential ballots that must be accounted for in any winning strategy.

Faced with this inherent voter deficit, a Southern contender cannot rely on sentiment or even a superior policy platform alone. The only viable path is strategic coalition building. No single region can elect a president alone; victory is a function of negotiated alliances.

Politics is a transaction of interests. The question that matters to power brokers in other regions is not "How good are your speeches" but "What is the tangible benefit for my people" A successful candidate must be prepared to answer this question with concrete offers.

The 2027 election is a pivotal juncture. A strategic view suggests it may be the last opportunity for the South-West to produce a president or even Vice president after 2027 election for the next 16 years, as the subsequent political cycle will inevitably shift focus to the North, the South-East, and the Middle Belt.

For the South-East, this presents a critical strategic decision. The region must avoid the tactical error of negotiating for the Vice-Presidency in 2031. Accepting such an offer would be a catastrophic miscalculation, effectively postponing their legitimate presidential ambition for another cycle and ceding their negotiating power.

The most significant political alignment for the next 16 years will be between the North and the South-East. The South-East's objective must be singular and unwavering a negotiated agreement for a full, uninterrupted 8-year presidential term, as other zones have enjoyed.

The North, in its own strategic calculus, may offer the Vice-Presidential slot to the South-South to secure their support. The South-East must not be distracted by this. Their focus must be on the top seat.

The negotiation for this future does not begin in future; it begins now. The South-East must leverage its considerable political and economic capital to build a formidable, cross-regional coalition centered on a guaranteed power shift. Proposing a single term is a position of weakness; negotiating for a full term is a statement of intent and equality.

The time for strategic positioning is not tomorrow; it is already underway.

Until the moment when will shall dance in white Greater Grace.

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